The January events in Kazakhstan became an occasion for numerous publications and expert materials. The scenario with rallies and then attempts to overthrow the government is now being projected onto other Central Asia states.
A political expert Bakhrom Khamroev commented on the “suddenness” of the protests in Kazakhstan and the internal political situation in Uzbekistan. In today’s interview, in continuation to the theme, the interlocutor of CentralAsia.news admitted the possibility of a riot. He also believes that the Uzbek security forces will be unable to cope with the riots.
Bakhrom, when speaking of a possible occurrence of events in Uzbekistan, who can “lead the people”?
When assessing the probability of a negative scenario for developments, the following facts should be taken into account. There is no organized opposition in the country, and any sprouts of independent political activity continue to be suppressed under Shavkat Mirziyoyev, as they were exterminated under the former president. Therefore, there are no politicians who could “inject” protest moods into a constructive process.
No leaders, but protests are highly likely?
It is too early to talk about possible leaders of the protests. However, we should understand that such a situation heightens unpredictability and danger of the ongoing processes, all the more so when people began to seriously and widely talk about the need for mass protests.
In Kazakhstan, they are still debating how the security forces allegedly “were doing nothing” in the first few days. Will not the special services and the military in Uzbekistan “let the situation get out of hand”?
If the unrest becomes widespread, the local law enforcement agencies are highly likely to be unable to suppress them. As Kazakh experience has shown, a significant part of the security forces refused to obey orders to suppress the protests, and in some places, they took the side of the protesters.
The CSTO forces helped the leadership of Kazakhstan a lot. What should Tashkent do then?
Apparently, only the involvement of the CSTO forces, mainly Russia, turned the tide. Similar developments should be expected in Uzbekistan. It is obvious that Russia will again take on the traditional role of a policeman. It will be motivated by traditional fears of growing radicalism in the region, the migration crisis and further loss of its already shaky positions.
It turns out that despite the multi-vector foreign policy of today’s Uzbekistan, it is the Russian Federation that continues to be a real support? Why is that?
Certainly, Russia cannot remain uninvolved in regional affairs. Moreover, if the Russian Federation really wants to maintain its positions, it must pay close attention to Central Asia and play the most active part in the region. However, this part should not be limited to maintaining stability by force. It is fundamentally important to reanimate the integration processes and get involved most actively in the economic development of the region.
What economic areas are open for partnerships?
In my opinion, it is much more important than the expansion of the CSTO to facilitate the accession of the Central Asian states to the Customs Union, torpedoed by their leadership. This fact alone will dramatically promote economic development of the region and have a beneficial effect on the lives of citizens, thereby increasing stability.
Will this be enough to strengthen the positions of the Russian Federation in the region?
Russia must enhance its cultural influence; it needs to turn from the country that uses cheap labour into a centre for training national highly qualified specialists. It is in its interest that Russia must support the development of democratic institutions in the region, contribute to the fight against corruption, violations of human rights and religious and political freedoms and boost national and cultural growth. By pursuing such a comprehensive regional development policy, it will secure the broadest support of the local population and effectively advance its interests.
What about the competition in Central Asia: the United States has become more active, Turkey is trying to promote the idea of Turan and China is offering loans and investing in projects in the republics?
Along with the geopolitical location of Russia, the remaining sympathy for it on the part of the Muslim world objectively facilitates cooperation. For a long time, Muslim peoples turned their eyes to Russia as the hope of liberation from colonialism. Strange as it may seem, such hope is not seen either in the United States, or in China, or even in seemingly culturally close Turkey. This credit of trust can and should be used wisely, helping to build a decent society and focusing on the interests of the population, but not those of local corrupt elites.
