The beginning of this year will forever go down in the history of Kazakhstan. On January 2, the rallies took place in several cities of the Republic, triggered by the twofold increase in liquefied gas prices. The demonstrations somehow quickly escalated into the riots and unrests. Participants in street actions began to demand the resignation of the government and the “withdrawal” of Nursultan Nazarbayev from the political life of the Republic.
It should be noted that the actions of the protesters were organised surprisingly well. The authorities of Kazakhstan confirmed the involvement of dozens of well-trained foreign militants in the riots. By the way, in early January, the government was dismissed, and Nazarbayev lost his post as Chairman of the Security Council of Kazakhstan. Immediately, versions and theories began to emerge about why and who was destabilising the situation and framing the incumbent leader Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev. CentralAsia.news requested that a political expert Mederbek Korganbaev provide independent assessments on current developments in Kazakhstan. Moreover, he has admitted such developments while analysing the processes in the Republic.
Mederbek, let’s give a bigger picture of the prerequisites for the rallies and unrests.
Social and socio-political discontent among the population of Kazakhstan has been brewing for several years. Over 30 years in power, the Nazarbayev clan has created a huge oligarchic empire in Kazakhstan that has full control over all income-generating industries in the Republic. Certainly, this state of affairs caused a negative reaction from citizens of Kazakhstan. Many of them believed that Nazarbayev’s entourage was seeking personal enrichment and ignoring the needs of the people.
Nevertheless, the welfare of the population kept improving over the years, when compared with the 1990s.
In the 2000s, petrodollars helped Nazarbayev and his team increase salaries, pensions and social allowances and avoid raising disaffection among the population.
Were there certain hints and preconditions that Elbasy's policy is far from satisfying 99% of citizens?
The first wake-up call for Nazarbayev's power was the events in Zhanaozen in 2011, when excessive force was used against the protesters. Despite the existing public discontent and criticism, Nursultan Nazarbayev, relying on law enforcement agencies, a loyal parliament and government, pursued a policy beneficial to him and his associates.
The current events – an “echo” of the first President’s policy?
We can say with confidence the main protest rhetoric was directed against the first President Nazarbayev, who, even after losing his post, continued to influence the ongoing political processes.
Is this linked to the defection of law enforcement officers to the “militants”, as Tokayev called them?
I doubt that the Kazakh security forces sided with the protesters and rioters. Perhaps, police officers in some regions, unwilling to engage in clashes, retreated and surrendered areas of responsibility and buildings. Or, the numerical superiority enabled the protesters to block the security forces, detain them and take away weapons and equipment. The protesters or rioters presented all this as a voluntary side with the protest masses. There was an information war going on during the riots, destructive forces disseminated false or misleading information.
Could this have caused Nazarbayev's loss of the post of Chairman of the Security Council?
Tokayev’s decision to dismiss Nazarbayev from the post of Chairman of the Security Council was a timely move. Tokayev thereby took the situation into his hands and launched prompt and tough actions against looters and rioters. Tokayev assumed the responsibility to restore order in the regions and gave shoot-to-kill-order to quell the criminals. It was not an easy decision for diplomat Tokayev, but he had no other choice.
The role of the CSTO in stabilizing the situation cannot be ignored. Did not Tokayev agree with Elbasy on the deployment of peacekeepers?
The events in Alma-Ata are the consequences of the struggle among the Kazakh elites. Probably, the people from Nazarbayev’s entourage tried to put pressure on Kasym-Zhoomart Tokayev and force him to make concessions. Tokayev refused to capitulate and took an unexpected step – he called upon the assistance of the CSTO allies. The deployment of the CSTO forces in Kazakhstan made a significant positive change in the current situation.
In fact, did the President receive a weighty safety net in the fight against militants thanks to the CSTO?
President Tokayev launched counter-terrorist operations, relying on the military assistance of the CSTO allies. The support from Russia and the CSTO members allowed Tokayev to save the country and get out of the crisis. It is the actions of the CSTO that have saved Kazakhstan from the threat of civil war.
